It is 10 years and 15,000 Soviet soldiers hurt in Afghanistan before it is admitted that he admitted defeat. West, it did not take long to slow the hemorrhage will bleed. Falls Afghanistan and the country, it is first on only one or two years, and fragmentation of internal civil war again in the fall. It may actually come sooner.
Soviet war in Afghanistan to prepare for death because they knew the edge of their empire was collapsing, and the other republics will follow on the Domino effect. The Soviet bureaucracy was fighting for his life. Mexico is the US's equivalent of the Cold War, communism was lost. The US and NATO forces, the motivation, determination and commitment in Afghanistan as war does not end.
Nature catastrophy and abysmal defeat in Iraq to a successful defense of any default Kabul regime undermines the psychological foundations. "The new surge" has failed to encourage the Taliban in the Afghan people and the war in the west and the Mujahedin, which will undermine the trust between government domination. Between conservative and Western forces in Iraq, intensify the sense of hopelessness and pointlessness of demoralization and defeat must make haste.
He has enough resources are low and the importance of exposures. The former British commander of NATO forces in Kandahar acknowledged that last year, the city was close to losing. It ruled that the south and east out of Kabul this year can be divided into Taliban hands, paving the way for the fall of the year.
Messianika ferocious Taliban fighters in a fight to the death with a fervor. With their brutal Soviet war and civil war that follows takes the experience of veterans. I have been regrouped, rearmed, almost killing his troops to prepare for both quantities are unfavorable open combat. In addition, they are changing the opportunistic strategy, both in order to create a more urban, and the destabilization of the country to win local support. Boasting of suicide bombers has more than 1,000 volunteers, he renounced his heroin cultivation of the former policy, so that the local tribal warlords, and criminal gang, who are alienated by NATO policies and gain support among the rural population base allows the poppy seeds to win area of destruction.
However, like many quarters in the despised, the Taliban or the population, especially the southern parts of the base without the tacit consent can not progress. In particular, the Taliban are Pashtun tribesmen who originate from the backing on the artwork. Southern and eastern areas have been completely outside government control in 2001. In addition, not only benefited the Allied Occupation of all that, but it is increasingly clear that with the exception of a few small centers, all the circumstances of the country outside Kabul has seen little improvement. Prepared for the conditions of unrest and the Taliban are filling the vacuum.
The break up of Afghanistan?
However, the Taliban released a powerful Pashtun tribes is likely to win much support. Yet they make the most of the country, they are concentrated in the south and east. Tajiks and Uzbeks, the North controlled the key among other minorities, such as an opportunity to make new inroads. They will fight the Taliban and fight hard, but his loyalty to the forces of NATO and the US-thin to say the least.
From Northern Alliance allies of the Taliban from Kabul without a land base. The Northern Alliance fierce fighters, freedom against the Soviets and Afghanistan war veterans of the Civil War. NATO and anti-US forces are much stronger than Mobilized for the calculation. It is possible that, when they will fight to the current government or coalition forces, they will certainly resist any new Taliban rule. The north and west of the country may decide to withdraw their areas.
This is a social reserve with the Allied forces leave, a frightened and insecure urban population of Kabul was the same as what the Soviet Union, excepting you. Squeezed by Helmund and other regions face a fierce fight, and at the same time, Al Qaeda in Kabul - to complement the style of urban terrorism strategy, sooner or later, a "Saigon - style" US migration and harried by the Allied forces could be on the cards. Net result of the break-up in the North and West of the partition, and southern and eastern areas of Afghanistan, the two key cities, including Kandahar and Kabul will be capital.
Pastunistan?
The Taliban itself, however, to fight the Northern Alliance to take on two areas about which the two sides can reach agreement between the US border and the partner institution or to make choices according to the focus can be determined. The Taliban claim the name of Afghanistan or the "Pashtunistan" can be selected - a long time, the Turks inside Afghanistan in spite of intermittent demand, especially within the unruly border areas with Pakistan. It can not be ruled out that the Pakistani Taliban on the Turks to break away from the larger Pashtun state to form a 30 million strong, 18 million Turks Pakistani and Afghan Turks for 12 containing lead may be aiming.
More closely linked to tribal and clan loyalties, although the Turks, there is a Pashtun with a strong national consciousness and independent Pashtunistan state exists in a latent core of disputed territories in the past, has been regularly raised with regard to Afghanistan and Pakistan in general. This area of the two "Durand Line", a totally artificial border between British imperialism created by the cut in the 19th century. Throughout their history, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan before the partition of India and the bedeviling question. The treatment, festering wound in the sporadic and occasional upsurges between the two countries of Pashtun independence movement has led to border clashes.
In fact, the Pashtun tribes of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is the current policy of appeasement in the North Waziristan last year, and its frontiers with the cease fire? They are alienating the Pashtun tribes are attempting to avoid a potential separatist movement in Pakistan and the Taliban attacks across the border in Afghanistan could develop from the head to?
Musharraf criticized the cost and effort to subdue the border lands proved. Effect, he was certain US Allies in Iraq and Afghanistan, or faces the same problems. Indeed, Pashtun tribesmen to fight the US charges missing in Iraq since doubled the number of troops. Obviously, he does not win a permanent place to try a political solution.
When it is loose and North Waziristan for self rule in the virtual last year agreed policy, President Pervez Musharraf said he was the first and leading work to protect the Interests of Pakistan. When there was grave in Kabul, Turks, and the deal is essentially a civil war, disintegration of their country's firewall to try. His own words, what they fear most, people around the Pashtun «Talibanistation», which he has already warned of the violent radical and separatist movement in the whole country can ignite. They engulf Pakistan from Afghan war, do not want to open the door for any backdraft.
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